06 February 2009

Just the Facts, not Opinions, Sir

All of us read, hear, and see discussions about the science of global weather patterns, including a phenomenon known as global warming. Political pundits argue for and against the need for the human species to take note of our contribution to changes in weather patterns, including global warming, and change our economic habits. Opinions on the subject of global warming vary like the colors in a paint store. If you don't have an opinion of your own, you can mix and match other opinions as you please.

Although I don't work as a scientist, I can observe the weather at a local level and make an informed opinion. I can research the weather reports and scientific studies available at my local library or those posted on the Internet and come up with a summarized view of global weather changes through history.

My observations at the local level tell me we don't seem to get as much snow in the northern reaches of the southeastern United States as we used to, which may imply the average temperature of storm systems passing through the area is higher than it used to be.

My reading of Internet reports shows that the average annual temperature of the planet is slowly increasing, and with it are increasing amounts of "greenhouse gases."

What I can't prove to myself is the total contribution that one species spread across the globe, Homo sapiens, is causing. To know that, I would have to know the total amount emitted by all species, including plant, animal, eubacteria and the like. I want to know what non-species' influence to include, like volcanoes. I would also have to know how much extraplanetary influence on weather comes from the Sun and the rest of the galaxy/universe.

Some of this information I can gather from the Internet. In my research, what little I've performed, I have come across interesting projections made by scientists who don't seem to be placing blame on the cause of global warming but merely pointing out potential effects. The most interesting effect I've seen so far came from an article titled "Sea level rise may be worse than expected" (accessed on 6 February 2009), with the following points making the most impact on me, especially the highlighted one:
  • When an ice sheet melts, its gravitational pull on the ocean is reduced and water moves away from it. That means sea levels could fall near Antarctica and rise more than expected in the northern hemisphere.
  • Antarctic bedrock that currently sits under the weight of the ice sheet will rebound from the weight, pushing some water out into the ocean.
  • The melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet will cause the Earth's rotation axis to shift, potentially moving water northward.
Of all the reports I've read, none of them have talked about the shift in the Earth's rotation. Instead, they've pointed out that the melting of glaciers will remove weight pushing down on rocks and dirt, changing the dynamics of plate tectonics, and they've mentioned the possible change to the flow of ocean currents and the ocean's rise. All of these I understand and can see the possible effects, including more or less frequent earthquakes, volcano eruptions, flooding and severe weather changes.

I don't understand what the simple fact of the change in Earth's rotation will do. We know from the study of magnetic changes in bedrock that the Earth's magnetic poles have shifted in the past. We have analyzed the slight wobbling of the Earth and seen how it may have led to the periodic rise and fall of previous human civilizations.

But has anyone studied the change in Earth's rotation and fully understand the effects? I'm not an eternal optimist nor a doomsday downer, because in my life I've seen that every up has a down and every low point has a high point in a cycle. Therefore, if Earth's rotation shifts on its axis, there will positive effects for some people on this planet and negative effects for others. The question I want to answer is how soon will the shift start occurring (if it hasn't already) and what should I do to prepare myself and my family to be on the positive side of the shift. On a larger scale, how should we as a global population reduce the negative effects on our species' continued success on this planet (and can we)?

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